
Note: the spreadsheet on which this entry is based is updated as official results become available and as I have time to update it. Therefore, the total shown might not agree with the title of this article. If the net skew flips toward Clinton I will create a new blog entry on this topic.
This will be a very ‘Joe Friday’-like post. Just the facts (with a bit of opinion at the end).
In every state primary there will by necessity be a slight difference in the ratio of votes received by each candidate to the ratio of delegates allotted. It’s basic math.
Take a four delegate district where candidate A gets 80,000 votes and candidate B gets 70,000 votes. Unless we are going to start slicing delegates up into pieces, it’s impossible to hand out the delegates in such a way that the delegate allotment reflects the will of the voters with absolute precision.
In theory, these should even out from state to state. But for whatever reason, they haven’t. The delegate allotments have skewed by 12 toward Senator Clinton. In other words, Hillary Clinton has received 12 bonus delegates over the course of the primaries at the direct expense of Barack Obama.
If you add in Florida, that number actually jumps to about 13.5.
Here are the details if you want to have a look: clicky
There could be a number of factors at work here: disproportionate increases in turnout, gerrymandered districts, random chance, or a structural bias against certain demographics.
Whatever it is, I hope the Democrats figure it out and find a solution for 2012.


1 response to Barack Obama Has Been Shorted 12 Delegates
1 The Numbers Guy : Weekend Reading List // February 28, 2008 · 10:51 am EST
[…] I wrote last week that Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up more delegates in Alabama than you might have expected from her share of the popular vote. Was this just a one-state fluke? Not according to Mark Myers, who crunched the numbers on the Democratic primaries thus far and found that, among pledged delegates, Sen. Clinton has picked up 12 more than you’d expect if the delegates were divvied up by statewide vote. On the blog Literary Outpost, he examines the numbers and provides a supporting spreadsheet. Two notes: He includes caucuses, where the connection between votes and delegates is much looser; and, in a close race, the Democratic rules tend to favor the one who’s trailing, because it takes a rout to win more delegates in districts with an even number up for grabs. Where Sen. Barack Obama has gotten lucky breaks, they’ve come mostly in states where he’s won in routs, thus clearing that threshold. […]
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